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Abstract Scalar inferences (SI) are a signature example of how humans interpret language based on unspoken alternatives. While empirical studies have demonstrated that human SI rates are highly variable—both within instances of a single scale, and across different scales—there have been few proposals that quantitatively explain both cross- and within-scale variation. Furthermore, while it is generally assumed that SIs arise through reasoning about unspoken alternatives, it remains debated whether humans reason about alternatives as linguistic forms, or at the level of concepts. Here, we test a shared mechanism explaining SI rates within and across scales: context-driven expectations about the unspoken alternatives. Using neural language models to approximate human predictive distributions, we find that SI rates are captured by the expectedness of the strong scalemate as an alternative. Crucially, however, expectedness robustly predicts cross-scale variation only under a meaning-based view of alternatives. Our results suggest that pragmatic inferences arise from context-driven expectations over alternatives, and these expectations operate at the level of concepts.1 

Relations between words are governed by hierarchical structure rather than linear ordering. Sequence-to-sequence (seq2seq) models, despite their success in downstream NLP applications, often fail to generalize in a hierarchy sensitive manner when performing syntactic transformations—for example, transforming declarative sentences into questions. However, syntactic evaluations of seq2seq models have only observed models that were not pre-trained on natural language data before being trained to perform syntactic transformations, in spite of the fact that pre-training has been found to induce hierarchical linguistic generalizations in language models; in other words, the syntactic capabilities of seq2seq models may have been greatly understated. We address this gap using the pre-trained seq2seq models T5 and BART, as well as their multilingual variants mT5 and mBART. We evaluate whether they generalize hierarchically on two transformations in two languages: question formation and passivization in English and German. We find that pre-trained seq2seq models generalize hierarchically when performing syntactic transformations, whereas models trained from scratch on syntactic transformations do not. This result presents evidence for the learnability of hierarchical syntactic information from non-annotated natural language text while also demonstrating that seq2seq models are capable of syntactic generalization, though only after exposure to much more language data than human learners receive.